TMP $391 million funding shortfall
Author: David D. Wagner
Boulder Tomorrow, like City Council, the Chamber, and PLAN-Boulder County, designated transportation as one of its top interests for 1998. There is widespread reflexive support for the notion of reduced traffic congestion, usually manifested as backing for mass transit. In recent years, there has even been tacit agreement on a need to increase taxes to maintain popular services like the HOP. Many prominent business people have supported the idea, no doubt believing they can help make seemingly inevitable change more constructive.
Boulder's Transportation Master Plan (TMP) guides decisions on how we spend about $21 million annually on transportation. Unfortunately, TMP identified a $391 million funding shortfall between 1996 and 2020 for accomplishing its goal of keeping traffic at 1994 levels. Discussion so far has focused on how to close that gap, though no concrete steps have been taken. Now, the bar has been raised.
TMP assumed robust 5 percent annual growth in sales tax revenue, among other increasing sources of money. But, it fixed capital costs for its many projects at 1994 levels. That scenario was far too rosy. With help from City staff, I recently completed a preliminary revision of TMP's projections suggesting the real deficit is at least $530 million (in 1998 dollars). That staggering figure, equating to a 1.4 percent sales tax rate increase, changes the political landscape for transportation.
Clearly, there is little hope Boulder can find the extra $24 million per year it would take to implement TMP. Unless we stop using it as our guidepost, though, we risk frittering away what we can afford without accomplishing anything substantive. We need a new plan we can pay for, and we need it soon.
Those who care about rational progress in our community will need to reassess their support for the feel-good philosophy that has driven transportation planning over the past decade. We face hard choices with limited resources. We can't realistically attain the pleasant future our leaders and the self-styled apostles of greenness have been promising. We need to match our actions to the size of our pocketbook.
Boulder Tomorrow and individual business leaders can help, but the key is to get involved early. Make sure you're paying attention to correspondence and notices from the City regarding projects that may impact your business, and show up at the very first meeting if you want to have influence. Bike lanes, medians and other projects to encourage bike and pedestrian travel also have the potential to impede traffic flow. Those in favor of the bike paths that inhibit traffic flow to your business will be at the first meeting. You need to be there too. By the time an issue reaches the Transportation Advisory Board or City Council, it's already designed, and for all intents and purposes, it's too late.
Business people can't continue to just "support" alternative transportation the way they have in the past, because it's not producing results. We welcome your involvement.
David D. Wagner is a member of Boulder's Transportation Advisory Board and President of Decision Planning Associates LLC. He can be reached at (303) 440-1005, or at ddwagner@aol.com.
